The Oscar Narrative: Post Festival Predictions - Best Original Screenplay

Post Festival Predictions
Mike Mills "20th Century Women"
Damien Chazelle "La La Land"
Jeff Nichols "Loving"
Kenneth Lonergan "Manchester By the Sea"
Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney "Moonlight"

Other Contenders - Noah Oppenheim "Jackie", Jon Spaihts "Passengers", Jean McGianni and Nate Parker "The Birth of a Nation", Nicholas Martin "Florence Foster Jenkins", Allan Loeb "Collateral Beauty", Taylor Sheridan "Hell or High Water", Steven Knight "Allied", Joel & Ethan Coen "Hail, Caesar!", Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos "The Lobster", Robert D. Siegel "The Founder", Chad Hartigan "Morris From America", Woody Allen "Cafe Society", Byron Howard, Rich Moore, Jared Bush, Jim Reardon, Josie Trinidad, Phil Johnston, and Jennifer Lee "Zootopia", Richard Linklater "Everybody Wants Some!!", Jonathan Perera "Miss Sloane", Andrea Arnold "American Honey", Jim Jarmusch "Paterson", Warren Beatty and Bo Goldman "Rules Don't Apply", Patrick Massett and John Zinman "Gold", Jeff Nichols "Midnight Special", Richard Tanne "Southside With You", Pedro Almodovar "Julieta", Guy Hibbert "Eye in the Sky", Asghar Farhadi "The Salesman", Ron Clements and John Musker "Moana", Matt Ross "Captain Fantastic"

Commentary - This race is so much deeper than its adapted counterpart, that there could probably be ten nominees. La La Land, Manchester By the Sea, and Moonlight all seem like safe bets right now, after their triumphant festival runs. Jeff Nichols has two entries this year, and is overdue for a screenplay nomination. I bet that Loving is the best bet of the two. Finally, 20th Century Women will premiere at the New York Film Festival, and buzz is strong. These are my top five, but like I said there are so many others. Jackie came in unaware at Toronto and is now a strong contender across the board. Passengers' buzz is dying, and I have no idea why, as it is still a huge contender. Florence Foster Jenkins, Hell or High Water, and The Lobster all have a lot of potential. Allies, Collateral Beauty, Rules Don't Apply, Miss Sloane, and Gold are still unknown, but strong entities. There are some comedies in the mix like Everybody Wants Some!!, Cafe Society, Hail, Caesar, and Morris From America that are strong, as are the animated contenders of Zootopia and Moana. Finally, don't discount previous nominees/winners Pedro Almodovar and Asghar Farhadi, as well as Southside With You, Captain Fantastic, The Founder, Paterson, American Honey, and Eye in Sky.