You know since AFTRA banded with SAG, the usual 18 or 19 Oscar overlaps have dipped tremendously, and unless I am the most wrong I have ever been since starting this blog seven years ago, this might be the widest difference in the two organizations' history. Spotlight is potentially the only one of the five ensemble nominees that will snag a Best Picture nomination, unless the other four clean up at PGA/WGA/SAG/Globes, etc. I love Straight Outta Compton's nod, and The Big Short was predicted (by me at least), but Beasts of No Nation is a curveball here, and maybe its great Netflix numbers are working in its favor. Helen Mirren's nomination for Woman in Gold is a name check if I've ever seen one, and it is ridiculous that that veteran slot couldn't got to Blythe Danner, Lily Tomlin, or Charlotte Rampling, all of whom are more deserving, and unlike Mirren (who I love by the way, but this is a bit much), have not received enough recognition over the years. Best Actor could be the same five, and Trumbo is clearly beloved among the industry (something I should have seen coming), but with Matt Damon, Will Smith, and others right there, there could be a shakeup. Besides Mirren, that Silverman nod, while not undeserved, is a shocker. I expect it to end like Jennifer Aniston's did, with a snub at the finish line. She got in because she campaigned like crazy, and has those television folks on her side (Bryan Cranston's fate could end here as well for the same reason). I still expect the Globes and BAFTA to resurrect Tomlin, Rampling, Danner, and Jennifer Lawrence (Joy is not doing well with critics either, it may be done for good). Best Supporting Actress was 4/5 category for me. Winslet, Vikander, and Mara seem like safe bets here (despite the whole lead vs. supporting thing), and McAdams has finally proved some folks wrong (I am proud to say I've been predicting her for a long time now). Then we come to Best Supporting Actor. I am not giving up on my Stallone vs. Keaton battle for the top slot, and while these five nominees are great, they don't seem like Oscar crossovers. Bale is beloved, Tremblay is a breakout star, and Michael Shannon is always deserving. But they will have an uphill climb, and this could be the race with the most flexibility, and is the most up in the air of the big four. In terms of the television categories, SAG voters seem to be stuck in their ways in Comedy and Drama, with a few notable exceptions, although there were not egregious nominees of the bunch. But they should be embarrassed by those atrocious nominees for the TV Movie/Mini categories. Of the ten, only about three are worthy, and the rest are just name checking at its worst. No Fargo, no Show Me a Hero, and some awful picks. They should be appalled at their decisions. The Oscar race is more in flux than it has been in years, and I don't think the Globes will do anything by complicate it further. As always, we'll have to wait and see.
Best Ensemble
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Trumbo
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston "Trumbo"
Johnny Depp "Black Mass"
Leonardo DiCaprio "The Revenant"
Michael Fassbender "Steve Jobs"
Eddie Redmayne "The Danish Girl"
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett "Carol"
Brie Larson "Room"
Helen Mirren "Woman in Gold"
Saoirse Ronan "Brooklyn"
Sarah Silverman "I Smile Back"
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale "The Big Short"
Idris Elba "Beasts of No Nation"
Mark Rylance "Bridge of Spies"
Michael Shannon "99 Homes"
Jacob Tremblay "Room"
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara "Carol"
Rachel McAdams "Spotlight"
Helen Mirren "Trumbo"
Alicia Vikander "The Danish Girl"
Kate Winslet "Steve Jobs"
Best Ensemble in a Drama Series
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men
Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Key and Peele
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black
Transparent
Veep
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Peter Dinklage "Game of Thrones"
Jon Hamm "Mad Men"
Rami Malek "Mr. Robot"
Bob Odenkirk "Better Call Saul"
Kevin Spacey "House of Cards"
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Danes "Homeland"
Viola Davis "How to Get Away With Murder"
Julianna Margulies "The Good Wife"
Maggie Smith "Downton Abbey"
Robin Wright "House of Cards"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Ty Burrell "Modern Family"
Louis C.K. "Louie"
William H. Macy "Shameless"
Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory"
Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba "Orange is the New Black"
Edie Falco "Nurse Jackie"
Ellie Kemper "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Amy Poehler "Parks & Recreation"
Best Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Idris Elba "Luther"
Ben Kingsley "Tut"
Ray Liotta "Texas Rising"
Bill Murray "A Very Murray Christmas"
Mark Rylance "Wolf Hall"
Best Actress in a TV Movie or Miniseries
Nicole Kidman "Grace of Monaco"
Queen Latifah "Bessie"
Christina Ricci "The Lizzie Borden Chronicles"
Susan Sarandon "The Secret Life of Marilyn Monroe"
Kristen Wiig "The Spoils Before Dying"
Best Film Stunt Ensemble
Everest
Furious 7
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Mission: Impossible
Best Television Stunt Ensemble
The Blacklist
Game of Thrones
Homeland
Marvel's Daredevil
The Walking Dead
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