The Oscar Narrative: November Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

November Predictions
Jennifer Lawrence "American Hustle"
Lupita Nyong'o "12 Years a Slave"
Julia Roberts "August: Osage County"
Octavia Spencer "Fruitvale Station"
Oprah Winfrey "Lee Daniel's The Butler"

Other Contenders - Margo Martindale "August: Osage County", June Squibb "Nebraska", Sally Hawkins "Blue Jasmine", Sarah Paulson "12 Years a Slave", Jennifer Garner "Dallas Buyers Club", Scarlett Johansson "Her", Emily Watson "The Book Thief", Carey Mulligan "Inside Llewyn Davis", Naomie Harris "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom", Zoe Saldana "Out of the Furnace", Amy Adams "Her",  Kristen Wiig "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty", Viola Davis "Prisoners", Maria Bello "Prisoners", Melissa Leo "Prisoners", Juliette Lewis "August: Osage County"

Commentary - I still hope that Margo Martindale scores a nod for August: Osage County, because she is apparently fantastic in the baity role, and she is just such a wonderful actress, who is finally getting her due. But I think that Harvey has a plan. First, I think he is bringing back Fruitvale Station, and is hoping it regains traction. That puts Octavia Spencer, a previous winner in an emotional turn, back into the race. I think, he may also go more for Julia Roberts, because she is the Oscar-winning movie star, and he may have an easier time pushing her in, than say Martindale. Of course, we will all know Harvey's intentions soon as the campaigns kick into high gear, but I still think he thinks (rightfully so), that in this category, if he can only get two, its Spencer and Roberts. In what we have seen of American Hustle, Jennifer Lawrence looks to be a standout. She is a recent winner, and they have often brought them back as a nominee quickly following a win, and she is right now the most popular movie star in the world with the very positive buzz and reviews for Catching Fire. If the film is what we think it is, she will be hard to ignore. But when it comes to the win, I still think that it is currently between Oprah and Lupita Nyong'o. I think both are easily locks for nominations, but who wins? I will do my first winner predictions when I finish by nominations predictions, but for right now, I am still leaning towards Oprah. Nyong'o has the Best Picture frontrunner, and probably the most difficult performance of the bunch. But Oprah is well, Oprah. She is the biggest name in the world, she has so many friends in the Academy, who knows when she'll do another movie, and she recently received an honorary Oscar. Anything can happen, but I fully expect Oprah to except an Oscar come early March. So who is on the outside looking in? Besides the aforementioned Martindale, there is June Squibb who is a scene-stealer in Nebraska, but will have to make a name for herself, as Bruce Dern takes the spotlight. Scarlett Johansson could receive the first voiceover nomination in Oscar history (an honor that should have gone to Ellen Degeneres for Finding Nemo), which would be cool, but let's face it, it aint going to happen. Also possibilities are the overdue Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine, Jennifer Garner, who apparently holds her own against the towering performances of Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto,  Sarah Paulson, who is quickly becoming a go-to actress for great roles, including this vicious turn, Emily Watson, Carey Mulligan, Naomie Harris, and the three from Prisoners.