The Oscar Narrative: First Golden Globe Predictions - Drama Categories

Best Picture - Drama
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Monuments Men

Other Contenders - Lee Daniel's The Butler, The Monuments Men, Saving Mr. Banks, The Wolf of Wall Street, Fruitvale Station, Dallas Buyers Club, Prisoners, Rush

Best Actor - Drama
Christian Bale "American Hustle"
Chiwetel Ejiofor "12 Years a Slave"
Tom Hanks "Captain Phillips"
Matthew McConaughey "Dallas Buyers Club"
Robert Redford "All is Lost"

Other Contenders - Forest Whitaker "Lee Daniel's The Butler", Matt Damon "The Monuments Men", George Clooney "The Monuments Men", Leonardo Dicaprio "The Wolf of Wall Street", Michael B. Jordan "Fruitvale Station", Hugh Jackman "Prisoners", Chris Hemsworth "Rush", Daniel Radcliffe "Kill Your Darlings", Michael Fassbender "The Counselor"

Best Actress - Drama
Amy Adams "American Hustle"
Cate Blanchett "Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock "Gravity"
Judi Dench "Philomena"
Emma Thompson "Saving Mr. Banks"

Other Contenders - Kate Winslet "Labor Day", Berenice Bejo "The Past", Marion Cotillard "The Immigrant", Carey Mulligan "The Great Gatsby", Brie Larson "Short Term 12", Adele Exarchopoulos "Blue is the Warmest Color"

Commentary - Wow, this race is tight, especially now that Blue Jasmine has joined the mix in drama (where is belongs by the way). Since it was announced that Woody Allen would receive teh Cecille B. DeMille award, I felt that HFPA voters would find room for Blue Jasmine. So I am actually predicting six nominees (a common occurence at the Globes). 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, and Captain Phillips are the big hits of the festival circuit. If American Hustle is good, I find it hard to imagine HFPA voters passing up on all of that star power. And then there are the Weinstein choices. The Butler and Fruitvale Station could pick up some nods, but both need a new breeze of buzz in order to get into the top categories here and at the Oscars. I think that August: Osage County will be getting a huge push by Weinstein, and the globes love Julia Roberts and Meryl Streep. I think they will find a slot for it. Then there are the big question marks, The Monuments Men, The Wolf of Wall Street, and Saving Mr. Banks. I know that all three can get in if the reviews are decent, I just don't know who gets left off. This will continue to be a mystery as we get closer to the nomination date. In Best Actor, watch out for Forest Whitaker, Matt Damon, George Clooney, and Leonardo DiCaprio (who is a Globes favorite), but for now I have stuck with the five biggest Oscar contenders in the Drama category (of course excluding Bruce Dern as he will most likely be in comedy). In Best Actress, I feel that there are current six actresses for five slots. If Judi Dench and Philomena go Comedy, then that leaves the remaining five as the nominees with the ever-popular Kate Winslet as the spoiler.