2012 Emmy Predictions: Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries

Will Win - Idris Elba "Luther"
Could Win - Woody Harrelson "Game Change", Clive Owen "Hemingway & Gelhorn", Benedict Cumberbatch "Sherlock", Kevin Coster "Hatfields & McCoys"
Should Win - Idris Elba or Woody Harrelson

Commentary - This has built itself to be a five way race with no clear frontrunner. Almost no one is making the same pick as me, but I think it is okay to take a race. Woody Harrelson was my first pick, but I think that while he was great in Game Change, that three acting wins is a little presumptious, and that he may be drowned out by his co-stars Ed Harris and Julianne Moore. Benedict Cumberbatch is a star in Sherlock, but he may not be recognizable to many of the voters, despite his rising stardom. Kevin Costner and Bill Paxton will probably cancel each other out, although that didn't stop Barry White last year, so maybe Costner (the stronger of the two) could easily win. Clive Owen was at one point my leading position, but Hemingway and Gelhorn, despite its huge nomination haul, was not very good, but he still is very much in contention. I think that instead, Luther's leading man, Idris Elba, who won the Golden Globe will surprise many viewers and take the award. Luther was a surprise nominee for the big prize, and I think his tape will be hard to ignore.