State of the Race: First Predictions - Best Adapted Screenplay

Predictions

Christopher Hampton "A Dangerous Method"

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash "The Descendants"

George Clooney and Grant Heslov "The Ides of March"

David Nicholls "One Day"

Cameron Crowe and Aline Brosh McKenna "We Bought A Zoo"

Other Possibilities - Hugo Cabret, War Horse, We Need to Talk About Kevin, The Help, On the Road, Jane Eyre, Moneyball, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Rum Diary, The Skin I Live In, Cars 2.

Commentary - A lot of great writers are competing for five measly spots, so this will be an interesting race to watch. Right now I am going with more traditional picks, but as always, something may come out of nowhere and become a contender. My top choice for the moment is Alexander Payne's latest The Descendants, because his last major awards contender Sideways took home the prize. I am also intrested in Cameron Crowe's latest We Bought a Zoo, as he too is a previous winner, with a buzzed project. I am also going with One Day because Lone's last film An Education managed not only a Best Picture nod, but a screenplay nod, and early word is very good for the film. My last two slots are going to films that seem to be getting a lot of attention, A Dangerous Method and The Ides of March. If I had to guess which one has a greater shot at sticking around it would be Clooney's lastest, as the Academy loves him and hell, he makes damn good movies.