State of the Race: Animated Feature

Yesterday, it was announced that one of the 16 potential animated films was deemed ineligible. This is significant because in this incredible year of animation, now we will most likely have only 3 nominees instead of 5 (maybe something out of nowhere will save the day!) So in terms of three nominations here are my current predictions:

Up

The Princess and the Frog

The Fantastic Mr. Fox

Maybes: Ponyo, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, Coraline, Astro Boy, and Mary and Max.

Up I feel is a lock, at least for a nomination, and I think it is the best chance for an animated film to get nominated for Best Picture. The next two slots are tricky. I'll probably regret not including Ponyo considering the Academy's love of Hayao Miyazaki, but for now, I feel it may be swallowed up by bigger contenders. Coraline was an incredible movie, but it's early release date (Up has Pixar behind it, early release date means nothing) may really hurt its chances. Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs was a surprise critical favorite and box office hit, and it may be rewarded with a spot. However, I feel that the quirky Fantastic Mr. Fox (which has good early word), which has names like George Clooney and Meryl Streep behind it, could see itself in the finals. The final spot, in my opinion may go to The Princess and the Frog. Disney's return to classic animation combined with an old-fashioned story with a new twist, and chocked full of upbeat Randy Newman songs, might just be the perfect combination.