2022 Emmy Predictions: Best Competition Program, Reality Host, Structured and Unstructured Reality Series

Best Competition Program

Will Win - RuPaul's Drag Race

Could Win - Nailed It! or Lizzo's Watch Out for the Big Grrrls

Should Win - Lizzo's Watch Out for the Big Grrrls

Commentary - Drag Race has dominated this category lately, and this is one of those categories where repeat winners do incredibly well. Watch out though for Nailed It! on its third try, and Lizzo's Watch Out for the Big Grrrls. Both of these would be great options if voters are looking to switch things up.

Best Reality Host

Will Win - RuPaul Charles "RuPaul's Drag Race"

Could Win - Nicole Byer "Nailed It!" or Queer Eye Hosts

Should Win - Nicole Byer "Nailed It!"

Commentary - RuPaul is legend, and has already become the most winning host in this category's history. Will voters repeat? History suggests that they are ready to move on, but until they do, I am picking the queen to reign. Nicole Byer and the Queer Eye hosts feel like natural successors. 

Best Structured Reality Program

Will Win - Queer Eye

Could Win - Shark Tank

Should Win - Queer Eye

Commentary - Queer Eye has won this category recently, and again, these voters love their winning streaks. If anyone can beat it, look for previous winner Shark Tank.

Best Unstructured Reality Program

Will Win - RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked

Could Win - Cheer

Should Win - RuPaul's Drag Race: Untucked

Commentary - The last two winners of this category are going up against each other. The last time they did, Cheer won. But since then, Untucked has won, and once voters move on, they rarely go back to old favorites. I think Untucked wins again.

The Oscar Narrative: First 2023 Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

First 2023 Nomination Predictions

Amsterdam

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Empire of Light

The Fablemans

The Son

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Other Contenders - Women Talking, White Noise, Everything Everywhere All at Once, She Said, TAR, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Triangle of Sadness, The Woman King, Nope, Living, Armageddon Time, Till, Shirley, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Thirteen Lives, Bones and All, Blonde, The Menu, I Wanna Dance with Somebody, The Good Nurse, The Pale Blue Eye, Golda

Commentary - The question is, how many big films get in? History suggests that one or two tops will make the cut, depending on how the independent landscape shapes up post festivals. Last year it was Dune. In 2019 (I am skipping 2020 for obvious reasons) 1917, Joker, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood were big hits. In 2018, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star is Born were massive successes. Right now I am predicting three. Top Gun continues to break records, the first trailer for Wakanda Forever promises a fantastic follow-up, and Avatar: The Way of Water may yet again change the game for modern cinema. Several recent favorites return with David O. Russell and Amsterdam, Florian Zeller and The Son, Damien Chazelle and Babylon, Steve Spielberg and The Fablemans, Alejandro G. Inarritu with Bardo, Sam Mendes with Empire of Light, and Darren Aronofsky and The Whale. Leaning on well-known favorites is usually your best bet early in the game. Sarah Polley has Women Talking, Noah Baumbach has White Noise, Martin McDonagh has The Banshees of Inisherin, Baz Luhrmann has Elvis, Ron Howard has Thirteen Lives, Luca Guadagnino has Bones and All, and Jordan Peele has Nope. Throw in other potentials like She Said, TAR, Triangle of Sadness, Glass Onion, The Pale Blue Eye, Golda, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Blonde, The Menu, Living, The Woman King, Till, Shirley, Armaggedon Time, and The Good Nurse, and we have a great race on our hands. 

2022 Emmy Predictions: Best Variety Talk and Sketch Series and Best Live and Pre-Recorded Variety Special

Best Variety Talk Series

Will Win - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver 

Could Win - Late Show with Stephen Colbert or The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

Should Win - The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

Commentary - Until something else wins, Last Week Tonight is my perennial pick.

Best Variety Sketch Series

Will Win - Saturday Night Live

Could Win - A Black Lady Sketch Show

Should Win - A Black Lady Sketch Show

Commentary - If A Black Lady Sketch Show is going to win, this it its year. Saturday Night Live's season was eh at best, it got so few acting nods, after dominating in recent years, and frankly, currently, it is the better show of the two. But SNL is the juggernaut, and I am predicting another win under its belt.

Best Variety Special (Live)

Will Win - Live in Front of a Studio Audience: The Facts of Life and Diff'rent Strokes

Could Win - The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and 50 Cent, or The Tony Awards Present: Broadway's Back!

Should Win - The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar and 50 Cent

Commentary - One of the pinnacle pop culture moments of the year was the Halftime Super Bowl show. It was an amazing 30 minutes of television, and the reviews were stunning. But it would have to break a lot of precedent to win. Instead, I think voters will go 3/3 on the Live in Front of a Studio Audience productions. They are nostalgic, stacked with stars, and big television events. 

Best Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)

Will Win - Norm MacDonald: Nothing Special 

Could Win - One Last Time: An Evening with Tony Bennet and Lady Gaga and Adele: One Night Only

Should Win - One Last Time: An Evening with Tony Bennet and Lady Gaga 

Commentary - There is Adele and then a lot of nostalgia, which could help Adele. One Last Time has made headlines with its addition of Lady Gaga and Tony Bennett as producers, which could help. However, it missed writing and directing, and I think that helps the other nostalgic nominee, the last work of the late-great Norm MacDonald, which got both categories. I think it wins in a tight race.

2022 Emmy Predictions: Best Directing and Writing in a Variety Special and Variety Series

Best Directing in a Variety Series

Will Win - Don Roy King and Liz Patrick "Saturday Night Live - Host: Billie Eilish"

Could Win - Paul Pennolino and Christopher Werner "Last Week Tonight with John Oliver - Union Busting" 

Should Win - Bridget Stokes "A Black Lady Sketch Show - Save My Edges, I'm A Donor!"

Commentary -  Continuity is key in the Reality and Variety races, and its one of those games where they might pick something different this year, but there is usually and ungodly long streak before they do. Long story short, expect Don Roy King and SNL to pick up another Emmy in this category, despite some excellent work that could be a refreshing change.

Best Writing in a Variety Series

Will Win - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Could Win - Late Show With Stephen Colbert

Should Win - The Daily Show with Trevor Noah or A Black Lady Sketch Show

Commentary - Again, continuity. Last Week Tonight has to lose at some point for me not to predict it again. 

Best Directing in a Variety Special

Will Win - Paul Rugdale "Adele: One Night Only"

Could Win - Bo Burnham "Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel", Hamish Hamilton "The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar And 50 Cent", or Stan Lathan "Dave Chappelle: The Closer"

Should Win - Hamish Hamilton "The Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show Starring Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Mary J. Blige, Eminem, Kendrick Lamar And 50 Cent"

Commentary - A Super Bowl Halftime Show has never won this category, but this year's show was so well-received, it could break the rule. I know it is hard to believe that a Dave Chappelle special could win an Emmy at this point, but the fact that it was nomination says a lot. Bo Burnham just won last year for Inside, and returns for Jerrod Carmichael's brilliant new special. But with three comedy specials, I think vote splitting will favor the majesty of Adele: One Night Only. 

Best Writing in a Variety Special

Will Win - Jerrod Carmichael "Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel"

Could Win - Norm MacDonald "Norm MacDonald: Nothing Special" or The Daily Show With Trevor Noah Presents: Jordan Klepper Fingers The Globe - Hungary For Democracy

Should Win - Jerrod Carmichael "Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel"

Commentary - This category has favored the hip comedy special of the year in recent years. The only exception in recent years was the Samantha Bee special. So watch out for The Daily Show special, especially as it is up against four stand up specials. I think Jerrod Carmichael is this year's Hannah Gadsby or Bo Burnham. But, you have a posthumous possibility with Norm MacDonald, and voters could be nostalgic. 

The 14th Gay and Lesbian Entertainment Critics Association (GALECA) Television Awards

BEST TV DRAMA

Yellowjackets (Showtime)

BEST TV COMEDY

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

BEST LGBTQ TV SHOW

Heartstopper (Netflix)

BEST TV MOVIE OR MINISERIES

The White Lotus (HBO)

BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE TV SHOW

Squid Game (Netflix)

BEST TV PERFORMANCE

Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets (Showtime)

BEST SUPPORTING TV PERFORMANCE

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus (HBO)

BEST TV MUSICAL PERFORMANCE

Beyoncé, “Be Alive,” 94th Academy Awards (ABC)

BEST TV DOCUMENTARY OR DOCUMENTARY SERIES

The Andy Warhol Diaries (Netflix)

BEST CURRENT AFFAIRS PROGRAM

ZIWE (Showtime)

BEST ANIMATED SHOW

Bob’s Burgers (Fox)

BEST REALITY SHOW

RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1)

MOST VISUALLY STRIKING TV SHOW

Euphoria (HBO)

CAMPIEST TV SHOW

Girls5Eva (Peacock)

WILDE WIT AWARD

– To a performer, writer or commentator whose observations both challenge and amuse

Jennifer Coolidge

GALECA TV ICON AWARD 

(TIE) Christine Baranski and Cassandra Peterson

GALECA LGBTQIA+ TV TRAILBLAZER

Jerrod Carmichael

2nd Annual Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) Television Award Winners

Best Game Show

Celebrity Family Feud (ABC)

Best Broadcast Network Reality Show or Competition Series

Lego Masters (FOX)

Best Broadcast Network or Cable Live-Action TV Movie

The Survivor (HBO)

Best Writing in a Broadcast or Cable Limited, Anthology Series, or Movie

Mike White, The White Lotus “Mysterious Monkeys” (HBO)

Best Directing in a Broadcast or Cable Limited, Anthology Series, or Movie

Mike White, The White Lotus “Mysterious Monkeys” (HBO)

Best Directing in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Comedy

Bill Hader, Barry – “701N” (HBO)

Best Broadcast Network or Cable Docuseries or Non-Fiction Series

We Need to Talk About Cosby (Showtime)

Best Broadcast Network or Cable Documentary TV Movie

End of the Line: The Women of Standing Rock (Fuse)

Best Broadcast Network or Cable Animated Series or TV Movie

Rick and Morty (Adult Swim)

Best Cable Reality Show or Competition Series

RuPaul’s Drag Race (VH1)

Best Broadcast Network or Cable Variety Sketch Series or Talk Series

A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO)

Best Supporting Actor in a Broadcast or Cable Limited, Anthology Series, or Movie

Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus (HBO)

Best Supporting Actress in a Broadcast or Cable Limited, Anthology Series, or Movie

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus (HBO)

Best Supporting Actor in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Drama

Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul (AMC) 

Best Supporting Actress in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Drama

Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul (AMC)

Best Supporting Actor in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Comedy

Henry Winkler, Barry (HBO)

Best Supporting Actress in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Comedy

Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Best Directing in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Drama 

Karyn Kusama, Yellowjackets – “Pilot” (Showtime)

Best Writing in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Drama

Dan Fogelman, This is Us “The Train” (NBC)

Best Writing in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Comedy

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary “Pilot” (ABC)

Best Actor in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Drama

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul (AMC)

Best Actress in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Drama 

Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Best Actress in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Comedy

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Best Actor in a Broadcast Network or Cable Series, Comedy

Bill Hader, Barry (HBO)

Best Actor in a Broadcast or Cable Limited, Anthology Series, or TV Movie

Oscar Isaac, Scenes from a Marriage (HBO)

Best Actress in a Broadcast Network or Cable Limited Series, Anthology Series, or TV Movie

Sarah Paulson, Impeachment: American Crime Story (FX)

Best Cable Series, Drama

(TIE) Better Call Saul (AMC) and Succession (HBO)

Best Cable Series, Comedy 

What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Best Broadcast Network or Cable Limited or Anthology Series

The White Lotus (HBO)

Best Broadcast Network Series, Comedy

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Best Broadcast Network Series, Drama

This is Us (NBC)

Best Streaming Docuseries or Non-Fiction Series

The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)

Best Supporting Actor in a Streaming Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Seth Rogen, Pam & Tommy (Hulu)

Best International Series

Squid Game (Netflix)

Best Comedy or Standup Special

Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special (Netflix)

Best Streaming Documentary Television Movie

Lucy & Desi (Prime Video)

Best Animated Short Form Series

Love, Death + Robots (Netflix)

Best Short Form Live-Action Series

I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson (Netflix)

Best Streaming Reality Show or Competition Series

Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls (Prime Video)

Best Streaming Animated Series or TV Movie

Arcane (Netflix)

Best Streaming Variety Sketch Series, Talk Series, or Special

The Kids in the Hall (Prime Video)

Best Writing in a Streaming Series, Comedy

Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky, Hacks “The One, The Only” (HBO Max)

Best Writing in a Streaming Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Movie

Danny Strong, Dopesick “The People vs Purdue Pharma” (Hulu)

Best Writing in a Streaming Series, Drama

Dan Erickson, Severance “The We We Are” (Apple TV+)

Best Supporting Actor in a Streaming Series, Comedy

Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Best Supporting Actress in a Streaming Series, Comedy

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBO Max)

Best Supporting Actress in a Streaming Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick (Hulu)

Best Supporting Actor in a Streaming Series, Drama

John Turturro, Severance (Apple TV+)

Best Supporting Actress in a Streaming Series, Drama

Sadie Sink, Stranger Things (Netflix)

Best Directing in a Streaming Series, Comedy

Lucia Aniello, Hacks “There Will Be Blood” (HBO Max)

Best Directing in a Streaming Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Movie

Lake Bell, Pam & Tommy “The Master Beta” (Hulu)

Best Directing in a Streaming Series, Drama

Ben Stiller, Severance “The We We Are” (Apple TV+)

Best Actor in a Streaming Series, Comedy

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Best Actress in a Streaming Series, Comedy

Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Best Actress in a Streaming Series, Drama

(TIE) Britt Lower, Severance (Apple TV+) and Laura Linney, Ozark (Netflix)

Best Actress in a Streaming Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout (Hulu)

Best Actor in a Streaming Series, Drama

Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game (Netflix)

Best Actor in a Streaming Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Michael Keaton, Dopesick (Hulu)

Best Streaming Movie

Chip ‘N Dale: Rescue Rangers (Disney+)

Best Streaming Series, Drama

Severance (Apple TV+)

Best Streaming Series, Comedy

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Best Streaming Limited or Anthology Series

Dopesick (Hulu)

Spotlight Award

As We See It

Legacy Award

Star Trek: Strange New Worlds

Streaming Breakout Star

Sadie Sink

TV Breakout Star

Quinta Brunson

TV Icon Award

Giancarlo Esposito

Virtuoso Award

Mandy Moore

The Oscar Narrative: First 2023 Nomination Predictions - Best Director

First 2023 Nomination Predictions

James Cameron "Avatar: The Way of Water"

Damien Chazelle "Babylon"

Sam Mendes "Empire of Light"

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu "Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths"

Steven Spielberg "The Fabelmans"

Other Contenders - David O. Russell "Amsterdam", Sarah Polley "Women Talking", Ryan Coogler "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Darren Aronofsky "The Whale", Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert "Everything Everywhere All at Once", Florian Zeller "The Son", Todd Field "TAR", Maria Schrader "She Said", Ruben Ostlund "Triangle of Sadness", Park Chan-wook "Decision to Leave", Gina Prince-Blythewood "The Woman King", Scott Cooper "The Pale Blue Eye", Luca Guadagnino "Bones and All", James Gray "Armageddon Time", Baz Luhrmann "Elvis", Martin McDonough "The Banshees of Inisherin", Noah Baumbach "White Noise", Kasi Lemons "I Wanna Dance With Somebody", George C. Wolfe "Rustin", John Ridley "Shirley", Ron Howard "Thirteen Lives"

Commentary - I start with five previous winners to play it safe. Damien Chazelle returns with a film history story, Steven Spielberg tells his own story, Mendes and Inarritu return with buzzed projects, and yes, James Cameron returns to Avatar. Laugh all you want to, this guy knows how to make impressive cinema. Some previous nominees and winners for Best Director populate the other contenders including David O. Russell, Darren Aronofsky, Noah Baumbach, and Ron Howard. Other previous Oscar nominees and winners include Sarah Polley, Ryan Coogler, Florian Zeller, Luca Guadagnino, Baz Luhrmann, Martin McDonough, and John Ridley. Also watch out for the Daniels, Todd Field, Maria Schrader, Ruben Ostlund, Gina Prince-Blythewood, James Gray, Kasi Lemons, Scott Cooper, Park Chanwook, and George C. Wolfe. 

The Oscar Narrative: First 2023 Nomination Predictions - Best Actor

First 2023 Nomination Predictions

Christian Bale "Amsterdam"

Austin Butler "Elvis"

Colin Firth "Empire of Light"

Brendan Fraser "The Whale"

Hugh Jackman "The Son"

Other Contenders - Timothee Chalamet "Bones and All", Brad Pitt "Babylon", Adam Driver "White Noise", Colin Farrell "The Banshees of Inisherin", Christian Bale "The Pale Blue Eye", Song Kang-Ho "Broker", Bill Nighy "Living", Daniel Gimenez Cacho "Bardo", Daniel Kaluuya "Nope", Kelvin Harrison Jr. "Chevalier", Colman Domingo "Rustin", Harris Dickinson "Triangle of Sadness", Gabriel LaBelle "The Fablemans", Joaquin Phoenix "Disappointment Blvd.", Harry Styles "My Policeman", Jalil Hall "Till", Michael Fassbender "The Killer", Ethan Hawke "Raymond and Ray", Ewan McGregor "Raymond and Ray", George Clooney "Ticket to Paradise", Nicholas Hoult "The Menu", Jamie Foxx "The Burial", Daniel Craig "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery", Paul Mescal "Aftersun"

Commentary - Austin Butler has landed on the scene for Elvis. I caution though that he will need lots of precursors. Hugh Jackman is pairing up with Florian Zeller for his follow up to The Father, which won Anthony Hopkins the Best Actor Oscar. There is a lot of buzz for Brendan Fraser for The Whale, and may finally be the role that gets him awards attention. Colin Firth pairing up with Sam Mendes opposite Olivia Colman feels like an Oscar comeback. Finally, I have put Christian Bale in for David O. Russell's latest Amsterdam. They have quite a history at the Oscars together. Beyond those five though, this race has a lot of potential. Timothee Chalamet is returning with Luca Guadagnino, Brad Pitt may go supporting for Damien Chazelle's latest, and Bill Nighy is getting a lot of buzz. There are plenty of previous nominees and winners in the race including Daniel Kaluuya, Adam Driver, Ethan Hawke, George Clooney, Jamie Foxx, Joaquin Phoenix, and Michael Fassbender. There are overdue veterans like Colin Farrell, Daniel Craig, and Ewan McGregor, mixed in with newcomers and breakouts like Song Kang-Ho, Gabriel LaBelle, Colman Domingo, Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Harry Styles, Nicholas Hoult, Kelvin Harrison, Paul Mescal, and Harris Dickinson. 

2022 Television Critics Association (TCA) Award Winners

Individual Achievement In Drama

Mandy Moore “This Is Us”

Individual Achievement In Comedy

Quinta Brunson “Abbott Elementary”

Outstanding Achievement In News and Information

The Beatles; Get Back

Outstanding Achievement In Reality Programming

(TIE) The Amazing Race and Legendary

Outstanding Achievement In Youth Programming

The Baby-Sitters Club

Outstanding Achievement In Variety, Talk Or Sketch

I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson

Outstanding New Program

Abbott Elementary

Outstanding Achievement In Movies, Miniseries, Or Specials

Dopesick

Outstanding Achievement In Drama

Succession

Outstanding Achievement In Comedy

Abbott Elementary

Program of the Year

Abbott Elementary

Career Achievement Honoree

(TIE) Ted Danson & Steve Martin

Heritage Award

I Love Lucy

The Oscar Narrative: First 2023 Nomination Predictions - Best Actress

First 2023 Nomination Predictions

Olivia Colman "Empire of Light"

Viola Davis "The Woman King"

Regina King "Shirley"

Carey Mulligan "She Said"

Margot Robbie "Babylon"

Other Contenders - Cate Blanchett "TAR", Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All At Once", Naomi Ackie "I Wanna Dance with Somebody", Helen Mirren "Golda", Danielle Deadwyer "Till", Ana de Armas "Blonde", Jessica Chastain "The Good Nurse", Annette Bening "Nyad", Jennifer Lawrence "Causeway", Keke Palmer "Nope", Emma Stone "Poor Things", Margaret Qualley "Poor Things", Sally Hawkins "The Lost King", Emma Corrin "My Policeman", Zoe Kazan "She Said"

Commentary - A lot of previous nominees and winners populate this early race. Margot Robbie has a huge role in Damien Chazelle's latest movie, and she is building the kind of resume that equal's Oscars. Carey Mulligan returns in a politically charged film, and she is still in the moment after her recent nod for Promising Young Woman. Regina King is playing Shirley Chisolm, Viola Davis is playing a warrior, and Olivia Colman is teaming up with Sam Mendes. All three recent winners with what are sure to be baity roles. On the outside you have the legendary Michelle Yeoh. Again, I need to see some precursors before I believe that the same voters who voted for CODA would vote for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Previous winners and nominees like Helen Mirren, Cate Blanchett, Annette Bening, Jessica Chastain, Emma Stone, Sally Hawkins, and Jennifer Lawrence are hoping to return. Then there is a slew of young talent, one of whom is poised to breakthrough, if recent history repeats itself, including Naomi Ackie, Danielle Deadwyer, Ana de Armas, Keke Palmer, Emma Corrin, Margaret Qualley, and Zoe Kazan.